SBV Technical Analysis - Trading Volume with Confidence
Simple SBV Trading System Blog
Trading Signals
Friday, August 07, 2009
This week's SBV chart example is based on the 60-day SBV(20) S&P 500 chart.
+10% on the S&P 500 in two months
This week's SBV example is a continuation of the S&P 500 chart example of July 31, 2008. This example continues to illustrate this rule in practice:
Chart 1. Relationship between the SBV Oscillator and index reversal points. S&P 500 index. 60-day view. 1 bar = 1 hour. SBV(20)
It's Simple and profitable
In our trading example, we applied the following simple system which is based on our SBV indicator:
 Once the SBV indicator has fallen below a negative signal level (the indicator will now show red), we will enter a short position (if we are not already short);
 Once the SBV indicator has advanced above a negative signal level (after having been below that level), we will enter a long position (the indicator still shows red);
Once the SBV indicator has rallied above a positive signal level (the indicator will now show green), we will enter a long position (if we are not already long);
 Once the SBV indicator has fallen below a positive signal level (after having been above that level), we will enter a short position (the indicator still shows green);
 Additional Stop Loss Rule - If the SBV had dropped into negative territory and has begun to rise without having hit the signal line, close the short position when the SBV is back in positive territory, and stay in cash until a new signal appears.
Do the opposite for a long position: if the SBV had moved into positive territory and has begun to decline without having hit the positive signal line, close the long position when the SBV is back in negative territory, and stay in cash until a new signal appears.
Detailed system description with explanation of used rules could be found in our "SBV Trading System" tutorial.
Table 1: Trades based on the 5-rule system.
Time
Motivation
Signal
Index
Profit (points)
6/11/2009
rule #4
Sell Short
945
+27
6/18/2009
rule #2
Buy
918
0
6/18/2009
rule #5
Cash
918
6/24/2009
rule #2
Buy
906
+10
6/26/2009
rule #4
Sell Short
916
-9
6/29/2009
rule #3
Buy
925
-8
6/30/2009
rule #4
Sell Short
917
-2
6/30/2009
rule #5
Cash
919
7/10/2009
rule #2
Buy
879
+93
7/28/2009
rule #4
Sell Short
972
-7
7/28/2009
rule #5
Cash
979
Â
8/04/2009
rule #4
Sell Short
1006
+5
8/04/2009
rule #3
Buy
1001
-2
8/05/2009
rule #4
Sell Short
999
-14
8/07/2009
rule #2
Buy
1013
Total:
+93 (+9.8%)
Note: The 20% level for the SBV indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time that the trading examples were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, traders should consider the current market situation and review the history of prior volume surges, including their magnitude (i.e., the level that the SBV indicator reached).
Our charts are unique in that they give traders the opportunity to choose the specific chart settings that best fit their personal trading styles and risk tolerances. Traders can thus develop and test their own trading systems. On our charts, you can scroll back in history to test any system that you have created.
Disclaimer:The chart example is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or make or imply any market trend prediction.