 |
|
A/D
Indicators |
|
|
|
 |
Trading System based on the "advances" and "declines" concept -
Magnitude of uptrend (recovery rally)
following critical A/D ratio.
The following continues our prior research on this topic
(read about it
HERE).
The period we analyzed for this article extends from October 15, 2004 to
date.
Our goal was to determine the extent (magnitude) of
uptrends ("recovery rallies") that follow, once the S&P 500 index has
reached "critical A/D ratio" levels. Our previous research (read about
it
HERE) uncovered
these "critical levels" as being 0.12 for the A/D issues ratio and 0.14
for the A/D volume ratio.
| Table 1. Magnitude
of uptrends (recovery rallies) following critical A/D
issues and A/D volume ratios. |
|
| Date |
Index |
Critical
A/D Issues Ratio |
Critical A/D Volume Ratio |
Magnitude of Uptrend (Recovery Rally) |
 |
|
|
|
|
| 10/7/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
2.5% |
| 9/29/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
5.6% |
| 9/17/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
9.4% |
| 9/15/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
1.9% |
| 9/9/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.10 |
2.5% |
| 9/4/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
3.0% |
| 8/18/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.12 |
0.09 |
1.9% |
| 6/26/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
2.3% |
| 6/20/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
1.3% |
| 6/11/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.10 |
2.3% |
| 6/6/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
0.7% |
| 5/7/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
3.4% |
| 4/11/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.07 |
6.7% |
| 3/14/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
7.7% |
| 3/6/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.07 |
2.2% |
| 2/29/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
1.0% |
| 2/5/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
3.9% |
| 1/17/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.13 |
4.7% |
| 1/15/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.8% |
| 1/4/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
1.3% |
| 12/27/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.09 |
0.8% |
| 12/11/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.09 |
2.3% |
| 11/26/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.09 |
7.9% |
| 11/7/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
1.1% |
| 11/1/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.07 |
0.8% |
| 10/19/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
3.3% |
| 9/7/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
8.4% |
| 8/28/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.05 |
4.4% |
| 8/14/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
3.7% |
| 8/3/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
4.9% |
| 7/26/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.09 |
0.4% |
| 7/24/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.9% |
| 6/7/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.07 |
4.4% |
| 5/10/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
3.3% |
| 3/13/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
9.8% |
| 2/27/2007 |
S&P 500 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.9% |
| 11/27/2006 |
S&P 500 |
0.07 |
0.10 |
5.8% |
| 6/12/2006 |
S&P 500 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
13.8% |
| 6/5/2006 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0.6% |
| 5/17/2006 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.12 |
1.6% |
| 1/20/2006 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.09 |
5.2% |
| 10/5/2005 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.13 |
8.2% |
| 8/16/2005 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.11 |
2.0% |
| 4/13/2005 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
6.1% |
| 1/4/2005 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
3.5% |
| 12/7/2004 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
3.5% |
| 8/5/2004 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.06 |
10.8% |
| 5/17/2004 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.08 |
5.7% |
| 4/13/2004 |
S&P 500 |
0.07 |
0.11 |
1.5% |
| 3/22/2004 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.11 |
5.0% |
| 9/22/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
13.7% |
| 8/5/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
7.7% |
| 6/23/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
3.4% |
| 5/19/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.06 |
10.3% |
| 3/24/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
9.8% |
| 3/10/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
10.9% |
| 3/4/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.12 |
1.0% |
| 1/24/2003 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.09 |
0.8% |
| 12/27/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.06 |
0.08 |
6.8% |
| 9/19/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.09 |
13.2% |
| 9/12/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.10 |
0.12 |
1.8% |
| 9/3/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
5.3% |
| 8/13/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
9.2% |
| 8/5/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
9.6% |
| 7/19/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.07 |
0.13 |
7.7% |
| 7/2/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.08 |
0.10 |
4.8% |
| 6/3/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.9% |
| 1/29/2002 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.06 |
6.6% |
| 9/17/2001 |
S&P 500 |
0.12 |
0.14 |
13.2% |
| 6/14/2001 |
S&P 500 |
0.11 |
0.12 |
1.7% |
| 4/3/2001 |
S&P 500 |
0.09 |
0.09 |
19.1% |
| 3/12/2001 |
S&P 500 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
1.6% |
| 4/14/2000 |
S&P 500 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
12.8% |
| 3/23/1999 |
S&P 500 |
0.08 |
0.06 |
23.0% |
| 8/31/1998 |
S&P 500 |
0.06 |
0.03 |
38.0% |
| 8/27/1998 |
S&P 500 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
0.9% |
| 8/4/1998 |
S&P 500 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
3.1% |
| 4/27/1998 |
S&P 500 |
0.08 |
0.06 |
9.5% |
| 1/9/1998 |
S&P 500 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
22.1% |
| 10/27/1997 |
S&P 500 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
12.5% |
| 10/23/1997 |
S&P 500 |
0.08 |
0.11 |
1.0% |
| 8/15/1997 |
S&P 500 |
0.08 |
0.14 |
9.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Since June 1, 1997 |
|
|
|
Copyright © 1997-2008 MarketVolume.com:
You may not copy, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish,
license, sublicense, create derivative works from, transfer or sell any of the
Information..
More... |
|
Table 1 above shows recent dates in 2004, where the S&P
500 index reached critical A/D ratio levels (as defined in the first
paragraph). The table also shows the magnitude of the ensuing recovery
rallies that followed. To calculate the magnitude of each recovery
rally, we simply compared the highest index level that was reached in a
particular rally with the index level (on a closing basis) on the day
the (lowest) critical A/D ratios were reached.
Performing this simple calculation for a number of
instances, where the S&P 500 index fell to critical A/D ratio levels,
provides a general idea of the strength (magnitude) of such recovery
rallies. For instance, after reaching critical A/D ratio levels on March
22, 2004, the S&P 500 recovered by 5%.
In Table 2 below, we took the same concept as above, but
applied it to the most recent recovery rally in the S&P 500. Because it
will be updated daily, this table will allow you to follow the index's
progress since hitting its most recent critical A/D ratio levels, which
were reached on September 22, 2004.
| Table 2. Magnitude
of most recent uptrend (recovery rally) following
critical A/D issues and A/D volume ratios. |
|
|
Last Updated on Sunday, October 12, 2008 |
| Date |
Index |
Critical
A/D Issues Ratio |
Critical A/D Volume Ratio |
Magnitude of
Uptrend
(Recovery Rally) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10/9/2008 |
S&P 500 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: The above data is updated on a daily basis. |
|
|
|
Copyright © 1997-2008 MarketVolume.com:
You may not copy, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish,
license, sublicense, create derivative works from, transfer or sell any of the
Information..
More... |
|
Conclusion: Our research has revealed that (based
on a limited number of recent occurrences since October 15, 2004), the
S&P 500 index has recovered by an average of 4 - 5% after hitting
critical A/D ratio levels.
Next
 V. K.
Copyright 2004 - 2008 Highlight Investments Group.
All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Free 30-Day Trial (No credit card
information will be collected.)
|
|
|
We provide our members with:
-
Volume
Indicators
plotted on Real-Time Intraday Charts.
-
Selling & Buying Volume Indicators plotted on Real-Time intraday Charts.
-
Advance Decline Indicators
plotted on Real-Time intraday Charts.
-
Trend
predictions updated daily in our Market
Commentary.
-
Buy & Sell Signals for QQQQ, SPDRs and DIA
* Your one-time one Month FREE trial ends on the 30th calendar
day after you enroll.
|
|
|
|
|
DOW
Signals
Past 6 Months |
|
8%
 |
17%
|
|
Compound |
Compound
Margin |
|
|
|
As of 10/12/2008 |
Buy / Sell Trading signals.
|
| |
