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Volume based technical analysis of broad market indexes. The trading system and market-timing system aid for the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100..., as well as QQQQ, SPDRs, Diamonds and other index derivatives. You too can achieve these returns...
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Daily Market Outlook (11/20/2009):
In Thursday's report, we suggested that in spite of 'the potential for an intraday bounce' the major indexes could 'trade still modestly lower'. Today, we saw down-closes on the major indexes although there was a modest late-day rally (where the Dow briefly entered into positive territory).
(Click here to read complete current Market Outlook)
Market Performance:
This week's early bullish action (which had boosted the market to new highs for the year) has given way to three consecutive down-closes. In today's (options expiration) session, the NASDAQ 100 lost 0.5% (the index ends the week down 1.35%), the S&P 500 declined 0.33% (it finishes the week with a loss of 0.19%), and the Dow was down 0.15% today (yet closes the week with a gain of 0.47%).
3,155 million shares were traded on the S&P 500 today; this volume output is 22% below the index's average daily volume generated over the past three months.
Volume Analysis:
9:30 - 12:35: For a second session in a row, we saw the NASDAQ 100 gap down 13 points at the open. Following this weak start, the index rallied sharply, but not for long; only 10 minutes later, the bears already regained the upper hand, driving the index lower to a new low (i.e., below the gap opening) at 10:05. From this point on, the market languished near its session low, bouncing weakly along the bottom until the early afternoon. During the index's entire morning slide, it accumulated a sizable amount of bearish volume (which appears in red on the SBV oscillator pane). A 5-day chart shows a large bearish volume surge that peaked around 10:00. This sizable bearish volume spike was a signal that the bears' efforts to push the market lower might soon be spent and that we could therefore anticipate some support and / or an upswing on the index.
12:35 - 16:00: A one-day chart indicates how the index - after having accumulated a surplus of bearish volume throughout the morning - started to move slowly off its lows and trend modestly higher. While it was a shallow recovery, the index was still able to recover sufficiently to close the session roughly in mid-range, down half a percent for the day. The afternoon climb was interrupted at 14:40, following a buildup of bullish volume (seen in green on the SBV oscillator pane), a signal that the bulls had temporarily exhausted their power to move the market higher. However, following a further addition of bearish volume between 14:45 and 15:15, the index was then able to stage a late-day push into the close. In summary, a 5-day chart of the index shows that today's trading resulted in a pronounced surplus of bearish volume.
Short Term (lasts a few hours to a few days):
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| Index | Change | |
| AMEX Comp. | -1.36% | |
| NASDAQ Comp. | -0.50% | |
| NYSE Comp. | -0.47% | |
| DJI | -0.15% | |
| S&P 100 | -0.31% | |
| S&P 500 | -0.33% | |
| Russell 3000 | -0.34% |
| Index | Change | |
| Gold/Silver | -0.84% | |
| Oil | -2.25% | |
| Semiconductor | -0.81% |
| Index | Adv/Decl | |
| AMEX | 390/617 | |
| NASDAQ | 1,152/1,343 | |
| NYSE | 1,160/1,877 | |
| DJI | 8/21 | |
| S&P 100 | 35/62 | |
| S&P 500 | 163/326 | |
| Russell 3000 | 1,131/1,599 |
| Index | Volume (K) | |
| AMEX | 679,722 | |
| NASDAQ | 1,833,719 | |
| NYSE | 3,743,408 | |
| DJI | 682,769 | |
| S&P 100 | 1,582,639 | |
| S&P 500 | 3,155,156 | |
| Russell 3000 | 4,740,010 |
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Adv. / Decl. Momentum Volume
